Sunday, August 28, 2011

Minority data shows a grim future for the GOP

Brookings: "America Reaches Its Demographic Tipping Point":
This is an interesting article:

The latest wave of 2010 Census data, released this week, confirms what earlier surveys have strongly hinted: virtually half of recent births in the U.S. are minorities...
Minorities now comprise at least 40 percent of infants in more than half of all states, with the white share of infants declining in all of them, with the exception of the District of Columbia. Especially large minority gains occurred in New England states, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts, as well as rapidly growing states like Florida, Nevada and Georgia...





Hispanics are a large part of this dispersion. They comprise more than half of all infants in California, Texas, and New Mexico and are the largest source of births in Nevada and Arizona. Among minority births, they contribute the most in 26 states, including Midwest states like Wisconsin, Minnesota, Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa. Blacks represent the largest minority in 17 states– all in the South except for Michigan, Missouri, Ohio, and Pennsylvania...
As America’s younger population becomes more diverse and spreads to broader parts of the country, we need forward looking political and civic leaders to bridge race-generational divides that are already fuelling issues like immigration and our ongoing budget battles over revenue and government spending choices.


This needs to be a wake up call for Republicans. Although the GOP has been making gains among young white voters, their popularity among blacks has remained minuscule. It was 6% in 2008 and 8% in 2011. The black population is growing in southern states, the GOP stronghold. Merely presenting black candidates does not work. They need to actually figure out how to communicate and sell their ideas, something that might no go well when they protest the 1964 Civil Rights Movement (for whatever reason) or attempt to remove social programs minorities rely upon.
Although the GOP fares a bit better with Hispanics at 22% favorable ratings, their popularity is shrinking. It is down 6% since 2008. This likely due to the fact that Republicans focus more on restricting illegal immigration than they do to comprehensive immigration reform. This doesn't seem likely to change anytime soon within the GOP. In fact, the problem seems to be getting worse.

So far this hasn't translated into a growing share of Democratic voters. 2% fewer Americans call themselves Democrats since 1990, while 3% fewer consider themselves Republicans. Independent voters have seen a rise. However, these Independent voters have the ability to swing most elections.

What does this tell us? Unless the GOP is willing to fundamentally change a few of its sacred views, the party is in severe danger of losing support in the long term.

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