Peter Diamond discusses a few things :
- Economic projections deal with significant uncertainty. The job of policy makers is to compare projections over a wide variety of possibilities and design policy on best projections of the time.
- Monetary Policy doesn't work instantly ("the long invariable lag").
- The labor market has to be factored into BOTH of the Fed's mandates.
- The fed cannot control the labor market. It can only influence into the direction that seems best at a given time
- There is no broader crisis, or long term trend, for why the employment population is so low today. It is the result of the economic crisis.
- This recent economic crisis cannot be represented by just one individual model.
- This recent economic crisis combined both a banking and housing market failure to create something significantly different from a standard cyclical recession. The Economy will not bounce back quickly.
- We need to focus on projects such as infrastructure spending because we have an abundance of capital, interest rates are low, and we do get a Keynesian multiplier out of it.
- The government needs to find out what it needs to be spending more on and figure out to what extent that will help us out of this economic crisis.
- The slow level at which infrastructure spending will be implemented is not a problem since all forecasts say it will take a long time to get out of this economic crises anyway.
- Obama's first priority should be fiscal stimulus for jobs
- There should be less focus on stimulus size (relative to time frame) and more focus on what Washington does with the stimulus
- We need better education, worker training, and Research & Defense Spending. The government has been cutting back on R&D spending. Yet technology drives increased wealth in the country.
- Most, but not all, of our low employment is attributable to low aggregate demand, resulting in the need for both fiscal and monetary stimulus.
- Our goal right now should be to make the economy less vulnerable to a double dip recession
- Austerity is a long run problem, not a short term one. The level of public debt is comfortably below the level it has been historically for the bond market to push up interest rates
- Policies need to have a long run effect of reducing debt growth
- Austerity TODAY will make the economy MORE vulnerable to a double dip recession, which would significantly reduce tax revenue, thereby exacerbating the problem of austerity anyway
- Cutting back the number of teachers in public schools at a time when we need to improve education is not going in the right direction
Video from Greg Mankiw's Blog.
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