The Roundup: On Ryan Edition

 
How Paul Ryan captured the G.O.P.¹
 Paul Ryan, the man partly responsible for the GOP losses in 2006 and 2008, as well as the loss of popularity the GOP has also seen since the beginning of 2011, may be one of the most relevant figures in the GOP today. He is the man who has led the push for conservatives to switch from Friedman to Hayek. And if you are fimiliar with his history, you may begin to doubt the permanency of his recent decision to not try and dismantle traditional medicare.

David Frum: Why Ryan?

"This election—which Romney once intended to make a referendum on Obama's record—will now become a referendum on Paul Ryan's bold budget ideas. Why would Romney make such a choice and take such a risk?"

David Frum: Only Ryan Could Sell Ryan’s Budget ‎

"Paul Ryan, as documented with hair-pulling frustration by Krugman, Chait and others, has successfully managed to play down the radicalism of his proposals in the eyes of the media. He comes across as a serious, pragmatic, decent, wonkish type rather than the Randian class warrior he is, which demonstrates serious political skill. Obviously I'd like to believe that this charade would be unsustainable under the glare of a total war campaign, but if he can pull the same trick on America that he's pulled on the Beltway, this could end up being very smart."

David Frum: What’s Right and Wrong in the Ryan Plan
David Frum's thoughts on the Ryan plan in this article mirror my own:

"Paul Ryan is wrong, wrong, wrong to imagine that a society can deal with rising social-insurance costs while entirely exempting Republican-voting age cohorts and without asking for anything from its richest people—in fact while simultaneously delivering those people a huge tax cut.

Medicare reform will mean large sacrifices for younger and poorer Americans, exactly the people who have lost most in this recession and the slow-growth years before the recession.

A president cannot ask that generation to bear all the remaining burden of sacrifice alone. You can't lead the battle for deficit reduction from the rear. Yet that is exactly the proposition embedded in the Ryan plan. That's bad politics—and worse governance."

Michael Tomasky on Romney’s Stunning, Terrible Choice of Ryan for VP

"If the Democrats handle this situation properly, that's where this ticket will end up too, and then the rest of us—the people who don't want federal policy to be based on Atlas Shrugged—can finally and fully press the case to the right that America is not behind you, and please grow up."

Romney seeks distance from Ryan's budget plans
Don't be surprised if the Ryan pick doesn't quickly materialize in a downward spiral for Romney in the polls. People just don't know much about Ryan. But by the time this campaign is over, they will and it's not gunna look good.

"A recent CNN/ORC international poll showed a majority of voters had no opinion of the congressman. Nearly 40 percent had never heard of him and 16 percent weren't sure what they thought of him."

Paul Ryan plan unpopular, polls show
Granted this is based on Ryan's 2011 plan, not his 2012 plan. But then again, does anyone really believe this Ayn-Rand-loving right winger really plans on preserving traditional medicare as an option if he were to get elected?


Paul Krugman: The Ryan Role¹

"What Ryan is good at is exploiting the willful gullibility of the Beltway media, using a soft-focus style to play into their desire to have a conservative wonk they can say nice things about. And apparently the trick still works."

FiveThirtyEight: A Risky Rationale Behind Romney’s Choice of Ryan¹

"Mr. Ryan is the most conservative Republican member of Congress to be picked for the vice-presidential slot since at least 1900. He is also more conservative than any Democratic nominee was liberal, meaning that he is the furthest from the center."

...

"Mr. Ryan’s controversial budget, which polls poorly, will obviously get much more attention than it had previously. The fate of the presidential race and the fate of Congressional races may become more closely tied together. Mr. Obama will no longer have to stretch to evoke the specter of Congress and its 15 percent approval rating. With Mr. Ryan on the opposing ticket, he will be running against a flesh-and-blood embodiment of it.

Taking risks like these is not what you do if you think you have a winning hand already. But Mr. Romney, the turnaround artist, decided that he needed to turn around his own campaign." (emphasis mine)

Barack Obama's 'Life of Julia' says Mitt Romney would replace Medicare with ‘nothing but a voucher’¹

But the bipartisan plan Romney supports includes traditional Medicare among seniors’ options for purchase on a Medicare exchange. It also requires other plans to offer benefits of at least the same value. Finally, it includes a more generous cap on spending growth than the original Ryan plan. If all plans rose in cost, hitting a proposed spending cap, the bipartisan plan says the government would turn to providers and other sources of savings. (emphasis mine)

Mitt Romney's Astoundingly Cynical Medicare Strategy¹

"Yes, the Affordable Care Act includes substantial cuts to Medicare. But Ryan's own budget, which nearly every House Republican voted to pass and which Romney has said he would sign as president, leaves those cuts in place and uses them to finance other priorities. In other words, the Romney campaign is attacking a proposal that Romney and his allies endorse." (emphasis mine)

BTW, these "cuts" are just "an attempt to curtail future Medicare spending". Medicare spending will still increase, but slower than it would have.

Romney did Obama a huge favor¹

"This year, an incumbent even more embattled than George H.W. Bush has his own preferred election theme. He doesn't want to debate his own record, which is pretty dismal. He wants to debate the record of the congressional Republicans electe d in 2010, a bunch radically less popular even than the president himself.

You'd imagine that Romney's job was to refuse the Democratic invitation, to choose his own ground for the election, and to keep his distance from the congressional GOP. You'd imagine, but you'd be wrong.

Romney has instead chosen to bolt himself to the House Republicans."

David Frum also has a great description of why we are struggling so hard to get out of this recession. Spoiler: It's housing, stupid!

 Paul Ryan's V.P. Nomination Kills Off Moderate Republicanism For Good¹

"The only argument that the GOP establishment can muster against the Ryan budget is that if it were perchance to be implemented, and the American people suddenly realized what its cutbacks in government would mean for them personally, the b acklash against the Republicans would be so cataclysmic that the GOP’s 1964 election wipeout under Barry Goldwater would seem a mere hiccup. Such pragmatic calculations seem small-minded and contemptible to Tea Partiers, who have in effect adopted the 1960s left-wing radical slogan: “Dare to struggle, dare to win.”"

12 Things You Should Know About Paul Ryan

PolitiFact: Fact-checking Paul Ryan, vice presidential candidate²

"House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan, R-Wis., Mitt Romney’s vice presidential pick, has been a regular on the Truth-O-Meter.

So have statements by others -- often criticism from Democrats -- about his budget plans and proposals to revamp Medicare and Social Security."

The AP provides a fairly comprehensive fact check of the many claims made by Romney and Ryan during Ryan's introduction as VP.²

Do Americans' concerns match up with Paul Ryan's?²
Gallup puts it well

"We now have a new high in those saying government's doing too much: 61 percent. And in general, government has a terrible image -- 10 percent job approval for Congress this week, that's the lowest tied for the lowest in history, a new number. So when you say government, people think 'bad,' negatively. However, when you get into a lot of the specifics, all of a sudden people pull back and say, 'Wait a minute, I don't want government to cut back on that or this,' and that's the dilemma that all these politicians face."

¹ Updated 8-13-12 
² Updated 8-15-12